NUPL, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, is the difference between Market Cap and Realized Cap divided by Market Cap. For the same set of Bitcoin UTXOs, it expresses the net difference between current and reference valuations relative to current market valuation. The metric is dimensionless, requires a positive denominator, and does not verify actual acquisition prices or owners’ realized returns.
Coin Metrics defines NUPL as Market Cap minus Realized Cap, divided by Market Cap. Our use requires a common currency, the same observation time and an identical set of coins; Market Cap must be positive. The result is dimensionless. It is not a ratio of purchase price to sale proceeds. [1]
Glassnode describes unrealized profit as positive differences between current UTXO valuations and their creation valuations, and loss as the positive magnitude of the opposite differences. Both relative components are divided by Market Cap. With identical inputs, our algebra obtains NUPL by subtracting them; it is not the share of profitable addresses or people. [3] [4]
Glassnode’s Realized Cap values coins at their price when they last moved on-chain. Our interpretation therefore does not automatically treat this price as the actual acquisition price: a transfer between one’s own wallets can change the reference without a sale. The metric itself does not establish exchange-internal trades, fees, tax basis or whether anyone still controls old coins. [5]
Glassnode’s NUPL subtracts unrealized loss from unrealized profit. We infer from this construction that zero can mean different valuations offset one another, rather than a zero difference for every coin. NUPL follows the state of unspent outputs; SOPR instead concerns outputs spent within a selected interval. [2]
From the definition of NUPL and the Market Cap to Realized Cap ratio used for MVRV, algebra gives: NUPL is one minus the reciprocal of MVRV. This derivation applies only to identical valuations and positive denominators. It cannot combine different coin cohorts, price sources or observation times. [1]
From the stated formula, with both capitalizations positive, we derive that NUPL is below one but can also fall below minus one. The denominator is current market valuation, not the capital originally invested. Such a result alone establishes neither an investor loss exceeding their investment nor the use of leverage. [1]
Glassnode also offers NUPL adjusted for estimated entities and describes retrospective revisions of on-chain metrics. Our comparisons record the provider, included cohort, price source, filter and data version. Heuristic clustering does not prove people’s identities, and today’s historical value may not have been available for decisions at the time. [6] [7]
Coin Metrics cautions that the historical success of on-chain indicators does not guarantee future results. Our use therefore does not infer a certain price bottom, top or psychological state of all holders from a NUPL band. The value alone does not determine the probability, timing or net return of the next trade. [8]
The same subset, three alternative valuations
For the clearest picture, read this entry together with UTXO, On-chain Analysis, Realized Cap, MVRV, SOPR. The reverse links also lead from MVRV, SOPR.
01Does zero NUPL mean all holders are at their purchase price?+
No. Current and reference valuations are equal in aggregate, but positive and negative differences of individual outputs can offset one another. The reference price of the last on-chain movement may also differ from the actual purchase price, and the number of outputs is not the number of people.
02Why can NUPL be below minus one?+
The difference is divided by current Market Cap. If reference Realized Cap is more than twice as large, the negative difference exceeds this denominator in magnitude. This is not the same calculation as a return on originally invested capital; the value alone establishes neither leverage nor an individual loss exceeding the investment.