609 / 736RPRICE

Realized Price

Quantity-weighted price of the last on-chain movement

Realized Price divides Realized Cap by the corresponding quantity of coins. It expresses a quantity-weighted average of last on-chain movement prices, not the documented purchase price of every holder. Meaningful comparison requires matching scope, time and methodology for both inputs.

Realized Price is Realized Cap divided by the corresponding current supply. In a Bitcoin output model, it thus converts the sum of output quantities multiplied by their reference prices at creation into an average price per BTC. This is a derived on-chain valuation, not an exchange quote, an average across address counts or a verified acquisition price for a particular person.

Glassnode defines Realized Price as Realized Cap divided by the current quantity of coins. It is a quantity-weighted average of last-movement prices, not an average weighted by output count. Our unit check divides dollar value by BTC quantity to obtain USD per BTC; we do not produce a result without a positive corresponding denominator. [1]

Glassnode’s volume-weighted definition implies that a larger quantity has more influence on the average. Our arithmetic interpretation does not give each UTXO, address or person an equal vote. Averaging all output prices without their amounts generally gives a different result; nor can the result reveal the average account of an actual investor. [1]

Coin Metrics notes that many on-chain transactions are not trades and that Realized Cap does not directly measure actual stored value. Dividing by quantity does not remove this boundary. Our term average on-chain cost basis therefore describes an estimate based on reference prices, not a compilation of invoices, exchange purchases or tax acquisition costs. [3]

Glassnode calculates general Realized Price from current supply and separately describes variants for selected holder groups. Our check requires numerator and denominator to cover the same set at the same instant. Capitalization of selected outputs cannot be divided by the quantity of the entire market and presented as the price of that group. [1]

Glassnode explains that spending outputs revalues them at the price of the new movement. In our unadjusted interpretation, the numerator can therefore change even during a transfer between one’s own wallets. A rise in Realized Price alone proves neither cash inflow nor a higher actual purchase price for holders; the methodology of any adjustments also matters. [4]

For CapRealUSD, Coin Metrics uses the USD closing price on the day of last movement and the state at the day’s last available block. Our reproduction must therefore specify the price source, time, scope and treatment of missing data. A daily reference price must not automatically be substituted for the price of a specific trade, nor should agreement among all providers be assumed. [2]

Glassnode describes changes to historical on-chain metrics following data and methodology updates. Our comparison records the version of both inputs and when they became available. A retrospectively corrected series need not be information a contemporary observer could have held; without this distinction, a trading-rule test may use future knowledge. [5]

Glassnode distinguishes market and realized valuation as different views of the same assets. With identical supply and positive Realized Cap, our algebra also allows MVRV to be expressed as market price divided by Realized Price. This identity adds no evidence of purchases, profit for every person or any guarantee that price will return to the average; a historical level is not a binding price floor. [4]

ExampleEXAMPLE · RPRICE

The same prices, different weights and a matching denominator

Our fictional model uses only two UTXOs named A and B, not Bitcoin’s entire supply. Their quantities are [1, 3] BTC and their assigned last-movement prices are [10000, 30000] USD/BTC. Contributions to the model’s Realized Cap are [10000, 90000] USD, totaling 100000 USD. The corresponding quantity is 4 BTC, so this subset’s Realized Price is 25000 USD/BTC. The simple unweighted average of the two prices would be 20000 USD/BTC; the chart compares the unweighted and correctly weighted results in that order as [20000, 25000] USD/BTC. At an assumed current price of 40000 USD/BTC, the same subset has a market valuation of 160000 USD and a market-to-realized capitalization ratio of 1.6. The current-price-to-Realized-Price ratio gives the same result. If we track only A separately, we divide its 10000 USD by its quantity of 1 BTC to obtain 10000 USD/BTC. Dividing that dollar amount by the original 4 BTC would incorrectly give 2500 USD/BTC: numerator and denominator would describe different sets. These are not historical data, a model of particular people’s purchases, a tax calculation or a forecast of the next price.

For the clearest picture, read this entry together with UTXO, On-chain Analysis, Realized Cap, MVRV, Market capitalization. The reverse links also lead from Market capitalization, Realized Cap, MVRV.

01Is Realized Price the average purchase price of all people?

No. Weights belong to coin quantities, and prices are assigned according to on-chain movements and methodology. One person may control many outputs, a transfer need not be a purchase, and some trading takes place off-chain. The metric does not verify personal purchase histories.

02Must market price below Realized Price rise soon?

No. The comparison describes the relationship between two valuations under a given methodology, not an obligation for the market to return to a certain level. Price may keep falling and Realized Price itself may change. Without further assumptions, the timing, probability and return of a trade cannot be inferred.

DOC · 001Glassnode — Realized PriceDocumentation DOC · 002Coin Metrics — Realized Market Cap (USD)Documentation DOC · 003Coin Metrics — Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators PrimerPrimary DOC · 004Glassnode — Realized CapitalizationDocumentation DOC · 005Glassnode — Introducing Point-in-Time Data: Addressing the Mutability of On-chain MetricsDocumentation
Revised: Source-first · No investment advice